Inflation to slow down this year, according to the NBRM’s quarterly report on spring macroeconomic projections


National Bank Governor Anita Angelovska-Bezhoska announced Monday the possible start of monetary easing in the second half of the year, but only if, as she said, favourbale key factors persist.

Macroeconomic projections for the period 2024 – 2026 refer mainly to a similar macroeconomic picture as in the October projections, the NBRM said.

In terms of economic growth, a gradual acceleration is still expected in the next period, but a little slower than the October projections. These evaluations reflect weaker achievements in 2023, as well as evaluations for a slightly less favorable external environment and delayed impact of domestic factors, i.e. slower implementation of construction activities related to new infrastructure projects. GDP growth rates are expected to be 2.6% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025, against October expectations of 3% and 4% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Inflation in this cycle would also maintain the path of downward adjustment until the end of the projection period. Projections for 2024 show a slowdown in price growth and an average inflation rate of 3.5%, which is at the lower end of the interval expected in October (3.5 − 4%). In the medium term, the expectations are unchanged, that is, in the period 2025 – 2026, inflation will be reduced to the historical average of 2%.



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