Higher inflation in 2021 and in the next two years, say experts


Experts predict an increase in inflation in the country. The National Bank is conducting a survey of inflation expectations and asking experts in the field, and according to the latest, the expectations for 2021 point to an average rate of 2.8 percent, compared to 2.3 percent in the previous survey.

Expectations for 2022 and 2023 are also higher, i.e. the respondents expect that the inflation rate will be 2.5 percent in 2022, although they said that it will be 2.1 percent in the previous survey and 2.3 percent in 2023, for which in the previous survey estimated that there would be inflation of 2 percent.

“Similar to the previous survey, respondents explain their inflation expectations primarily by the gradual stabilization of the situation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic which would lead to increased domestic demand, as well as higher prices of imported goods, such as food prices and energy. Respondents also believe that monetary and fiscal measures, and wage growth would contribute to higher inflation growth. On the other hand, prolonging the crisis and re-introducing restrictive measures to deal with the virus, and thus increasing uncertainty and slowing down the recovery of the domestic economy, as well as possibly lower import prices could lead to lower inflation rates,” says the National Bank.

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