Around 14,500 first-graders have so far been enrolled for the 2026/2027 school year. Six years earlier, in 2020, 19,031 live births were registered in Macedonia. The difference of more than 4,500 children raises one of the most difficult demographic questions: how many of this generation still live in the country and how many families have left it in the meantime?
Macedonian Minister of Education and Science Vesna Janevska informs that the current figure is not final, as additional enrollments will continue until the end of September. However, even if more children are enrolled in the next period, it is difficult to expect the large gap between the number of births and the number of students who have reached first grade to be completely closed.
According to official data from the State Statistics Office (SSO), 19,031 live births were registered in 2020. It is precisely the children born in that year that make up the majority of the generation that should start school in September 2026.
This means that the comparison is not entirely mathematically pure. Some of the children may have delayed enrollment, some will be enrolled additionally, and a small number of children born at the beginning of 2021 will also enter the generation. However, the difference of about 4,500 children, or almost 24 percent of the number of live births in 2020, is too large.
Not all of these children have “vanished”, but it is obvious that a significant part of the generation does not appear in the current records of first-graders.
The long-term trend is unambiguous, although in some years there have been small increases. In the 2016/2017 school year, 23,266 first-graders were enrolled, in 2018/2019 – 22,130, and in 2023/2024 – 19,848.
If the current figure of around 14,500 does not change significantly by the end of September, in a decade Macedonia will have almost 9,000 fewer first-graders.
The difference between 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 was 396 students. The following year, 1,531 fewer first-graders were enrolled, while the current, still incomplete figure is around 3,400 lower than last year.
The final data will show whether the decline is really accelerating, but the current picture is already causing serious concern.
