The National Bank Council, at its session held on February 3, 2026, adopted it quarterly report, which states that macroeconomic indicators point to stable performance in the most important segments of the economy and are largely in line with the National Bank’s October projections. Domestic inflation slowed down as expected under the influence of the slowdown in core inflation, and domestic economic activity moderately accelerated. The banking sector continues to achieve solid growth in the deposit base and credit activity, and foreign exchange reserves are maintained at an appropriate and safe level.
The quarterly report states that in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, the annual inflation rate was 4.2%, which is an expected slowdown. Inflation for the entire year 2025, on average, is 4.1%, which is close to the October observations. According to the October assessments, inflation is expected to slow down in 2026 and gradually return to the historical average in the medium term. However, certain risks remain, with the main sources of uncertainty related to movements in primary product prices on world stock exchanges, geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation processes, as well as certain domestic factors affecting demand.
In the Q3 2025, real annual growth in gross domestic product accelerated from 3.5% in the previous quarter to 3.8%, which is slightly higher than the assessment in the October projection cycle. According to the October baseline scenario, economic growth is expected to accelerate for the whole of 2025, amounting to 3.5% (3.0% in 2024), and in 2026, as well as in the medium term, it would further strengthen and reach 4.0%.
At the end of 2025, the level of foreign exchange reserves reached EUR 4,920.5 million and, according to all relevant indicators, provides adequate support for maintaining the stability of the domestic currency.
